Like it is 1999! well not so much

In Jobs we trust.

AAPL the one company who wrote the book on sandbagging, crushing earnings and then guiding down again, knocked the proverbial hide off of the ball, by any stretch of the imagination, best non Holiday 3rd quarter in memory, and offered positive guidance! 2.6M Macs beat street estimate, 5.2M iPhone vs 4.8M street estimate, 10.2M ipods vs 10.5M street 2 out of 3 and we we will take it!

And this is where it gets interesting again, do we get the push to 1050 on the ES? The Investing Gods have smile dupon us here At AEIG LLC, http://bit.ly/c8KZd having followed this to a tee it feels good!

I am thinking things are setting up for the mirror image of the bear massacre of last weak on the failed breakdown of the head and shoulder pattern, and flings us back into the May June range. With the major indexes up almost 9 days n a row, some retracement is due immanently The animal spirits are too prevalent on both sides for this tape to be settled in either direction. Lots of frustrated exaustion is needed first. Trade the tape you get not the one you want!

Good Trading

EX

This is where it gets INTERESTING

Perhaps Hank Paulson should deliver the above line to our showboating leadership on the hill

Right on cue the BULL is back! So sports fans how high do we gun this market? As predicted the over obvious bearish head and shoulders pattern failed in spectacular fashion today emboldening the late to the party bull crowd. The dumb money, retail, late to the party, long only faction is now tingly and fully engorged. Can we look back to this time last year when the emotions were running exactly the same, all was well...... and ran into the abyss! Earnings season should rise above the lowered bar expectations, and goose us right into the fall. Perhaps some hesitation at the previous high at 956 and a tantalizing whiff of god forbid S&P 1000. This is when the head of the feckless long only crowd will be fully ensconced in the guillotine, once again. I am calling for a choppy upwardly biased summer, and then the END! For those wiling to make a stand and be flexible, it is truly days of Wine and Roses. Trade the tape you get not what you WANT.

Good Luck

EX

HOW MUCH DO I LIKE THIS MARKET

NO ONE GETS OUT OF HERE ALIVE, NO ONE(excepting myself!)

This market is a dream come true for those willing to do the home work and spend the wee hours in front of the charts. As I look back at this post http://bit.ly/c8KZd, and more importantly the fact that I followed it to a tee, with leverage for myself and client accounts, I am damn near ready to start in on a six pack of Natural Ice Before 4pm today!! If I was not so humble I would raise my fees, just kidding! Lets see where this ends up, I think I will take a late lunch scalping, but I am thinking this is as big a trap for the bulls as the over obvious H&S was on the bottom. Give this tape a week or two to whip up the animal spirits of the long only crowd before BABOOM. Good luck and Good Trading, I have some Natural Ice to Kill!!

I see you stand like greyhounds in the slips!

Once more unto the breach?

Not just yet my friends. Oddly enough on the way into the office today, my receptionist, who only vaguely knows what I do professionally, mentioned the imminence of the confirmation of the Head and Shoulders pattern playing out on the major indexes. When it is that obvious it usually is not. No doubt a series of powerful body blows has been delivered to the ever annoying green shoots crowd. God knows they had it coming to them. Funny to think that Dennis Kneale of CNBC fame may have ushered in the great retracement of 09 with his end o recession rants of late!



It would appear the neckline of the classic bearish pattern was penetrated.. on lower volume however. Some would argue that a target of 800 to 810 on the S&P is imminent. I feel however that a good deal of support exists at 875, an area of key resistance on the way up, which will now act as support on the way down. A gap down on Wednesdays open could set the stage for a dramatic reversal trapping a lot of late/lazy bears, leading to a squeeze and run to 900 to 905. I have long been calling for and investing for a test of the very area we are now at. I have been fading this drop and adding small longs into today's close. Futures eerily quiet as of now, tomorrow should be epic, good trading!

Credit Rating Agencies..this is the last straw

This gem just in http://bit.ly/vTok8. Now they have gone too far! Many believe, this author included, that the credit ratings agencies are one of the biggest culprits in the great credit crisis and crash of 08. AAA credit ratings were handed out like beads at Mardi Gras. Wall street did not even have to lift its shirt, just keep a stream of lucrative payments flowing. They were paid fees by banks who sometimes pressured or shopped around for the most favorable risk assessments, an obvious conflict of interest. Enron, remember that now quaint little scandal dwarfed by today's affairs? Enron was rated AAA days before going bust. AIG, Bear Stearns, Mortgage backed Securities, Banks laden with derivatives of every stripe and color, all handed superior if not the highest ratings. Then after the crash when down grades of these very institutions led to the need to raise capital at a time when it wasn't available only exacerbated the issue and lead to the markets death spiral that was last fall and early 09. Now they have set there sights on the Mother Land, the Emerald Isle, the once Celtic Tiger. In all seriousness, a sovereign downgrade to Aa1 with outlook negative leading to more cuts is a very serious matter. Much of Europe particularly the former eastern block is in similar if not much worse shape. Seeing as to much of the developed world moves in lockstep economically this situation does not bode well for the green shoots of optimism crowd.

A much worse than expected NFP report on Friday lead to a greater than 2% slide in the S&P 500, with a close below 900 and the 50 day moving average. Stunted holiday volume was the only savior on the day. As I have mentioned many times recently, a date with 875 is imminent. I surmise the level will hold and launch into another failed run at 950 on the index over the mid summer. For those with the ability to analyze, and act, this is actually a great time to be in the markets. Happy 4Th and good trading!