Thursday, April 2, 2009

Go Long the FInancials, REALLY LONG LONG!!!


Though this be madness, yet there is method in 't



$C citigroup just the other day came out with the bold call to essentially sell short Citigroup, themselves!!



March 31 (Bloomberg)Investors should buy put options on financial companies because derivatives-market trading suggests the industry will retreat after a 43 percent surge since March 6, Citigroup Inc. said.“Despite the rally, credit and option markets are pricing in increased downside risk,” New York-based Citigroup strategist Alvin Wang wrote in a note sent to clients today.He recommended puts giving the right to sell the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund, an exchange-traded fund that tracks a basket of bank stocks, for $8 before May 15. The XLF, as the ETF is known, added 5.5 percent to $8.81 in New York, bringing its gain since March 6 to 43 percent. The May $8 puts fell 25 percent to 70 cents today.


My opinions on the Deathstar that is known as Citigroup are fairly well known. In my long association with Smith Barney/Citigroup I generally did very well taking a diametrically opossed view to anything they advised, which is what scares the hell out of me with this call. I have been dubious to put it mildly of the run up in financial shares of the last 3 weeks. This call has me wanting to buy out of the money calls on the financials. Perhaps, 12 to 16 months ago, prior to the financial holocaust, this gem from Citigroup might have been useful, much less so now. (editorial note, I went short the financials at the close today, and I am scared)
Tomorrow is the BIG day. The Labor Dept reports Non Farm Payrolls, sure to be a complete nightmarte of job loss and despair. Anything less than the "whisper number" of about 750K jobs loss will probably be celebrated as a generational low, and a tripple buying opportunity. I am thinking this rally is running on fumes particularly in the financial area, Friday should be interesting.

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