Friday, March 6, 2009

Nice Bottom.....NOT!


Sorry Sports fans, but in the humble opinion of this simple country speculator, the bottom is definitely not in. As ugly, and at times physically painful as it is to see the beloved markets plumbing such ghastly depths, the sentiment is far too giddy and hopeful for any meaningful bottom. One market economist from a respectable enough investment house had quite a run on the cable outlets calling the bottom last November. CNBC even named it after him, and tracked the Google rankings. Alas the market violated his bottom in a fashion that would make a mother cringe and look away. Strange, we hear much less from him now. Notable short sellers have now taken up the task, some even calling it to within a 48 hour window! For what it is worth the bottom will come when all the breathless anticipation is nonexistent. We will bottom when the sirens on the cable networks stop looking for it, and announcing that we are off our worst levels of the day. We will have a bottom six or seven months after retching at how ugly the tape is, gives way to dry heaves and ultimately the very sore stomach of apathy. A couple months after no one cares anymore is when it usually happens. Till then, embrace this volatility.
We might get a welcomed bounce this coming week. Behold the thermo nuclear weapon of the bull camp, suspension of mark to market accounting. Our feckless leaders on capitol hill will be mugging for camera time whilst supposedly pondering the idea of letting our nations banks and investment houses mark to fantasy, balance sheets groaning under the weight of worthless assets. The mere suggestion should give us some upward momentum. Actually suspend or alter FA SB 157, SHAZAM, 2000 DOW points before you can even max out your margin account buying a 3X leverege financial ETF, helooooo $FAS! Stay nimble and lets see if we can carve some more profits out of the market we have.

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