Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Cry Havoc and let slip the dogs of war!


Cry "Havoc!" and let slip the dogs of war, That this foul deed shall smell above the earth ...


The lines above from Shakespeare's Julius Caesar sort of sums up how I feel in going very long and participating in the apparent rally we find ourselves in. However I think it is critical to enter the markets every day with the demeanor of a mercenary in the Belgian Congo, fight for the winning side. If you have taken even a passing glance at my earlier missives one might surmise that a) I am very doubtful :"the bottom" is in, and b)my admiration for the Big Red Frown(aka Citigroup) is somewhat lacking at this point. Ergo any rally led with the giddiness of pundits stepping to the plate and pointing to the left field bleachers, and worse by piles of headlines proclaiming roughly "Citigroup chief says all is well......back in the water kids", I am going to have a hard time with. That said we are coming off of deeply oversold conditions by any measure, and god knows we have rallied on worse. Remember the "Tim Geithner" rally commencing late on Friday the 21st of November of last year. That now comical moon shot gave us a gain top to bottom of over 20%. Some technicians would say that qualified as a new bull market. We know how that ended. Chatter regarding the re reinstatement of the up tick rule is little more than face time for the cameras for Rep Barney Frank. Pricing in decimals and the explosion of ECN's really negate any lasting practical effect it will have.

Futures looking decidedly green this morning, let us see if we can get some follow through here. I would love to think I could take my eyes off of the screen for a few blessed moments and let leveraged long positions ride for a bit. Here is to fighting for the winning side!









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